MODULE 1: An Introduction to Decision Analysis (DA)
When neglected, decision analysis can become less analytical and more of an exercise in organizational politics. As observed by Garvin and Roberto (2015), there are many negatives organizational consequences when DA is less characterized by critical thinking and more by persuasion and lobbying. Outcomes gravitate away from a systems approach striving for collective ownership of problem solving and potential win-win solutions toward a binary output of winners and losers: When DA is not objective, bias can creep in! As noted by Jesse Richardson, author of the website Your Bias Is, "cognitive bias means there’s a kind of misfiring going on causing us to lose objectivity." You can view several commonly encountered bias in the interaction below:
The Value
We begin Module 1 by considering the value of DA; why should we employ decision analysis?
We begin Module 1 by considering the value of DA; why should we employ decision analysis?
When neglected, decision analysis can become less analytical and more of an exercise in organizational politics. As observed by Garvin and Roberto (2015), there are many negatives organizational consequences when DA is less characterized by critical thinking and more by persuasion and lobbying. Outcomes gravitate away from a systems approach striving for collective ownership of problem solving and potential win-win solutions toward a binary output of winners and losers: When DA is not objective, bias can creep in! As noted by Jesse Richardson, author of the website Your Bias Is, "cognitive bias means there’s a kind of misfiring going on causing us to lose objectivity." You can view several commonly encountered bias in the interaction below:
Basic Terms & Timeline
We continue by considering some of the basic concepts and through a survey of a condensed DA timeline.
We continue by considering some of the basic concepts and through a survey of a condensed DA timeline.
Personal Reflection
Here we will move from a theoretical examination to a more personal reflection on how you approach decision-making.
Here we will move from a theoretical examination to a more personal reflection on how you approach decision-making.
 |
Decision Style |
 |
|
The Flow
In this section we will analyze a generic process and flow chart for DA.
In this section we will analyze a generic process and flow chart for DA.
 |
Decision Analysis Process |
 |
|
|
Decision Flow |
 |
|
Decision Trees
How can decision trees help us as decision-makers? What are some of the tools (apps) that we can use to draw decision trees?
How can decision trees help us as decision-makers? What are some of the tools (apps) that we can use to draw decision trees?
 |
Decision Trees |
Tools
Lucid Chart: single user $9.95/monthhttps://www.lucidchart.com/pages/how-to-make-a-decision-tree-diagram
TreePlan (excel add-in): student price $17
Edraw Max Pro: academic price $69.30
In this section you will access your Hypothes.is assignments:
-
H1: Exploring the history of DA; Gut versus Analysis https://hyp.is/treEMrGOEems2pcrN2Gu7A/hbr.org/2006/01/a-brief-history-of-decision-making
In this section you will access your Flipgrid assignments.
https://flipgrid.com/8538b12e
PASSWORD: NEC2019!
Module 1 Assignments
1. Using at least two tools, e.g. EDraw, Lucid Chart and TreePlan, construct a decision tree using the following data:
Identify the optimal decision among the three choices! Bring a hardcopy of the file with you to our next session.
2. After viewing the required viewing on Lucid Chart below, construct a decision tree using Lucid Chart that mirrors the following:
Identify the optimal decision among the three choices! Bring a hardcopy of the file with you to our next session.
3. After purchasing TreePlan, construct a decision tree for the DriveTek Scenario as found on page 205 of their guide:
For this assignment, you must use the excel add-on known as TreePlan! You must upload a pdf version of this assignment into Blackboard (see the Week one Folder).
Required Reading:
Brown, J. W., & Brown, R. V. (2014, August 01). Decision Analysis Comes of Age. Retrieved August 27, 2017, from https://hbr.org/1982/09/decision-analysis-comes-of-age
Buchanan, L., & O'Connell, A. (2006, January). A Brief History of Decision Making. Retrieved August 27, 2017, from https://hbr.org/2006/01/a-brief-history-of-decision-making
Chan, W., & Mauborgne, R. (2015, July 16). Fair Process: Managing in the Knowledge Economy. Retrieved August 27, 2017, from https://hbr.org/2003/01/fair-process-managing-in-the-knowledge-economy
Garvin, D. A., & Roberto, M. A. (2001, September). What You Don't Know About Making Decisions. Retrieved August 27, 2017, from https://hbr.org/2001/09/what-you-dont-know-about-making-decisions
Kassirer, J. P. (1976). The Principles of Clinical Decision Making: An Introduction to Decision Analysis. The Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine, 49, 149-164. Retrieved August 28, 2017. Available here
Additional Required Viewing: